Recently I was introduced to a great little video that pointed out the need for leaders to think beyond immediate needs and actions taken to fix urgent problems, focusing then on the long-term consequences that may result. The video (YouTube link below) tells the story about how in the 1950s the island of Borneo was dealing with an outbreak of malaria caused by mosquitoes, not unlike the current emergent problem of the Zika virus. The video shows, that while the World Health Organization was initially efficient and effective in their actions toward the epidemic, their expedient solution set off a chain of events that created even greater problems which had to be confronted in a most unusual way. In the end, the initial issue was dealt with, however, not without creating more problems that intensified as time passed.
The lesson for leaders is to think before we act. Yes, it is important to act swiftly and confidently when confronted with a situation. However, sometimes we need to look beyond the obvious problem and imagine what consequences may arise in response to our solution. This is all a part of using future scenarios and other foresight tools to map out our desired futures and the potential futures that may result as we take action today. One of those tools is a futures wheel developed by Jerome C. Glenn back in the 1970s. It is a visual tool that allows the user to see the direct and indirect consequences of a decision or action.
Briefly, the way a futures wheel is used is to begin by stating an action taken. In the center of a blank page, draw a circle and inside it write the decision or action being considered. From there, draw circles around the original circle with possible outcomes of the action taken. Example: Original action could be “Eat a large bowl of ice cream every day for a month.” A possible outcome is to gain ten pounds. The next step is to carry the possible outcomes to the next level for each of the first set of outcomes from the original action. In our ice cream example, the third level could be, “I will have to buy a new wardrobe,” which could have a whole new set of positive and negative outcomes such as “less money in savings account” or, “generate revenue for the fashion boutique owned by a friend.” Using a futures wheel can be an effective and fun exercise to make sure that the decisions and actions we take today are thought through on a longer-term scale. If we think about what might be the end result of our actions, we may be more careful in how quickly we initiate our plan.
As leaders, we must guide our organizations to a desired future. Although we can’t see the future, we can make decisions that will affect it in positive and negative ways. It is up to us to use whatever tools we have at our disposal to see beyond the actions of today and to what might happen if we proceed with our decisions. Sometimes it is just a matter of making sure we don’t move too quickly and are not short-sighted. Just as a chess player calculates the consequences of a series of moves, we must do the same.
The link to the video is “Systems Thinking: a cautionary tale (cats in Borneo) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17BP9n6g1F0
Enjoy and lead well.